Knowing When to Abandon a Promising Lead
Launch library · evergreen read

Some leads look genuinely promising at first glance but simply refuse to develop further no matter how much additional time is invested, and recognising when to let go of one is a skill distinct from the more common problem of giving up too early on a difficult lead.
A useful test is asking whether continued effort on this specific lead is actually producing new information, or simply consuming time that could be spent more productively elsewhere on a project with a genuine deadline already attached to it. Setting a rough time budget for a promising lead in advance, before genuine enthusiasm for it takes hold, helps a writer recognise objectively when that budget has actually been exceeded.
Abandoning a lead is not the same as declaring it false, since a lead that cannot currently be developed further may simply need more time, a different approach, or new sources that do not yet exist to pursue it properly just yet, if ever at all.